He further warned that should existing distributors resist reducing prices, the refinery would begin direct sales to consumers. The refinery is currently producing about 2,000 tonnes of LPG daily, with plans to ramp this up significantly.

Industry Resistance Grows

Newton Lagos-based marketers have reacted strongly, accusing Dangote’s strategy of monopolistically undermining their livelihoods. Godwin Okoduwa, former Chair of the LPG Downstream Group at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce, voiced concerns that Dangote risks overshadowing the contributions of small-scale investors, who together grew Nigeria’s LPG consumption from 70,000 tonnes in 2007 to over 1.3 million tonnes in 2022.

Okoduwa stressed that the sector’s growth hinged on cooperative efforts, not the dominance of a single player. He urged Dangote to favour collaboration over exclusion .

Bassey Essien, CEO of the Nigerian Association of LPG Marketers, expressed scepticism over Dangote’s feasibility, questioning whether the refinery could realistically offer cheaper LPG by bypassing traditional distributors—citing the example of unfulfilled promises in downstream fuel pricing .

The Stakes

• Consumer affordability: LPG’s high cost compels many Nigerians to rely on firewood and kerosene—a major health hazard.

• Supply capacity: The Dangote refinery’s LPG output reportedly meets a significant portion of national demand.

• Market disruption: Analysts expect Dangote’s move to shake up traditional pricing schemes and benefit consumers—but warn about the risk of over-centralization in the sector .

Market Analyst Perspectives

Energy expert Adeola Yusuf highlighted the inefficiencies within the import-dependent LPG market—such as foreign exchange volatility and fragmented logistics. He anticipates that major producers, including Dangote, will force distributors to adjust pricing models, similar to shifts seen in fuel market pricing.

Looking Ahead
Dangote’s promise to “crash” cooking gas prices poses an unprecedented challenge to Nigeria’s LPG market. While the move could significantly ease energy costs for households and improve health outcomes, it also raises questions about fair competition and the sustainability of a potential vertical market structure. Regulators face a critical task: ensuring price relief for consumers without allowing monopolistic dominance over the gas sector.

Bottom Line: Dangote’s direct-sales threat puts established LPG marketers on edge—but also signals possible relief for consumers in Nigeria’s high-energy-cost landscape. The future balance of affordability, equity, and market fairness hangs in the balance.

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